10 Points On Why Harry Reid Will Probably Win Re-Election:

[skywaterblue]

I do think it's going to be a squeaker, but my father and I are kind of baffled by the meme going around outside Nevada that Harry Reid is in a shit-ton of danger of losing his seat. It seems like it's gaining traction because the polling numbers are skewed Republican at the moment. None the less, I think Reid's seat is pretty safe. Let us discuss why:

1. It's pretty tough to knock off an incumbent, even in a change election, in general.

2. Harry Reid has never actually had an easy re-election. He's almost lost a couple of times and gotten damn dirty in the courts to keep that seat. This arguably makes him much harder to knock off because he has advanced notice, and not easier to knock off just because the Republicans have a fair fight.

3. Have you noticed that our other Senator is an asswipe who has never done anything and is involved in like fifteen massive scandals? He's a Republican, by the way. John Ensign. You may have heard of him.

4. Also, have you noticed that our Republican Governor is the WORST. GOVERNOR. EVER? Gibbons says shit like, 'Let's quit paying for Medicare!' and 'Let's stop funding the university!' He is a moron, he has a sixteen percent approval rating and he decided to run for re-election in 2010. He's so loathed that he's probably not going to win the Republican primary - though I hope he does, because...

5. Harry Reid's son, Rory Reid, is probably going to win the Democratic primary for the Governor's race. Though I myself loathe nepotism, and if possible Rory has even less charm than his dad, I find myself warming up a lot to Rory Reid. He's good with the books and has been a pretty decent Clark County Commissioner, which is a position with a shit-ton of power in Nevada. Right now a Mormon accountant sounds like a pretty good fucking idea to me.

6. The Democratic Party in Nevada has like a massive voter lead over the Republicans, and the Reids have like a MASSIVE war chest, as if you even believed the DNC wasn't going to flood a shit ton of money into Sen. Reid to keep the Senate Majority Leader from getting tossed out. Harry Reid has like fifteen million dollars. And he's already got commercials and mailers.

7. The Democratic Party also controls both state houses.

8. Do you really think that Obama is not going to pass a Health Care Bill? First, it's out of committee so it would have to be massive fucking fail for them not to pass something at some point. They only need fifty votes and Joey Biden, guys. Being a life-long Dem, I'm not saying we're not capable of fucking up that hard, but a lot more is riding on the stupid health care bill than Harry Reid, y'know what I'm saying? And you really think that the voters of Nevada are going to toss out the Senate Majority Leader who passes the most massive social reform in forty years?

9. Even if all that were not true, as of right now both Republican senate primary candidates suck, and have no money. They both posted grand totals of 300,000 dollars today. One of them is Danny Tarkanian, who is apparently a lawyer - but more importantly, the son of Jerry Tarkanian, who won the UNLV Baseball championship in the 90s and since then the family has been trying (mostly unsuccessfully) to become a nepo family in Nevadan politics.

His more serious competition is Sue Lowden, who I guess would be a serious candidate as she is the former head of the Republican party here. Both of them are currently engaging in seeing which can suck the cock of our local crazy Tea Party people harder, which is going to be not appealing to the rest of us in a couple of months. Apparently Sue Lowden pissed the Tea Party people off back when they were um, Paultards, so IDEK.

10. In conclusion, maybe if the Republican party had some credible candidates to run, Harry Reid might have a squeaker. And I guess the Lt. Gov. is considering hopping into this race. But as it is he's just an unpopular guy who has always kind of been unpopular-but-he-gets-shit-done-so-we'll-keep-him. His son is the only reasonable choice to take the Governor's race, and so long as people show up to the polls, they're just gonna check all Dems and go home.

By the way, I find it really funny that Harry Reid threw a big hissy over his son running, 'cause I think it's going to end up saving his bacon. But we'll see.

Comments

[devilc]

He's good with the books and has been a pretty decent Clark County Commissioner

At one point about 4 years ago, he was the only Commissioner not being investigated by a Grand Jury. (That was the year about 3 of them were convicted of felonies.)

I've got two reads on this:

(a) He's clean -- for a politician
(b) He knows how to bury his shit so it don't stink.

[skywaterblue]

Yeah, that was one of the years I was in Chicago. Either a or b is good with me. I mean, compared to Gibbons actual gibbons would look competent.

What's your read on their chances?

[badachie.livejournal.com]

I agree with everything but #8. I think that the makeup of the Senate could royally fuck things up. Maybe after today, the Repubs can be shamed into doing something, but I'm not that optimistic. There's too many ways for something to die in the Senate.

[baked-goldfish.livejournal.com]

The GOP doesn't need to be shamed into doing something. 58 Democrats is a majority; even if 8 of them decide to bail, that's still 50 D senators and one D vice president. It would be risky to shove something through without GOP support, but not passing some kind of health care bill when it was such a huge part of Obama's campaign platform would be equally risky, if not moreso.

[badachie.livejournal.com]

The Republican Senators have much more to gain politically by filibustering health care and not letting anything through. Hopefully, people start paying attention and realize that all Repubs are doing is saying no without offering anything up. But right now, Dems aren't getting that point across effectively.

Also, icon love.

[baked-goldfish.livejournal.com]

Sure they have a lot to gain, but the point is they can threaten to filibuster all they want, and if the Democrats can cowboy and cowgirl up (a gigantic "if," I know, I know), even if that means using some form of the nuclear option, they will still have enough votes at the end of the day to pass a health care reform bill. And while the Democrats have a lot to lose if they try and get filibustered to death, they could have even more to lose if they give up on the mere threat of filibuster.

And thanks. I am quite fond of them.

[skywaterblue.livejournal.com]

Thiiiis.

[baked-goldfish.livejournal.com]

I agree with pretty much all of this. Political pundits in general forget to look at the landscape outside of the Capitol dome, which is one reason why they didn't call the Coakley debacle, and one reason why they didn't see Beau Biden's decision coming from a mile away (and also why a lot of them think that was political, and not, you know, the choice of an AG who's dealing with an alleged pedo who might have molested over 100 children in his care).

[skywaterblue.livejournal.com]

The Coakley debacle, aside from being depressing, seems to me to have mainly been about the Democratic party acting like it owned the seat and could put any dumbass in the chair, and the voters of Massachusetts rolling their eyes. I'm sure a decent candidate will take the seat back in two years, assuming that Brown is as dumb as he looks.

In any event, the damage was done by Obama when he decided to take half the Senators he liked, and then the DNC thought it could just get seat warmers. Which was always fairly stupid.

[baked-goldfish.livejournal.com]

I admit that I like Clinton as State Sec'y, but it did concern me that he'd pulled both Biden and Clinton out of the Senate. That said, MA would have been preventable if Coakley hadn't run such a shit and presumptuous campaign.

I would watch a Brown Family reality show, so I hope he loses his seat so that they can get on that instead. And also because I want that seat to go D, but really, I can't lie, I want to see that reality show and I think they'd be up for at least one season.